- Crude oil prices decline most in 4 months amid risk aversion
- Gold prices spike to 2-year high on UK referendum outcome
- Commodities may take on consolidative tone after Brexit jolt
Crude oil prices fell alongside stock prices while gold prices surged amid last week’s Brexit-fueled risk aversion. More of the same continued after the weekend. The WTI contract mirrored weakness across Asian equities while gold traded upward with near-perfect inversion.
Looking ahead, the spotlight turns to Sintra, Portugal. The world’s top central bankers are gathering for an ECB forum, offering an opportunity for seemingly inevitable post-Brexit referendum commentary from Fed Chair Yellen, ECB President Draghi as well as BOE and PBOC Governors Carney and Zhou, respectively. Short of the unlikely appearance of policy specifics however, the markets are unlikely to be materially inspired even by such giants of global policymaking.
The unprecedented secession of an EU member state with its many lingering uncertainties look set to prolong the risk-off mood. Hinting as much, European and US stock index futures are pointing sharply lower in late Asian trade. A degree of consolidation is also a reasonable scenario however. The immediate event risk has passed and now the Brexit drama transitions into the slog of dealing with the particulars. There seems to be some room for reflective digestion.
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GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –
Gold prices accelerated upward having put in a bottom below $1200/oz as expected, spiking to a two-year high. A daily close above the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1321.79 paves the way for another test of the 76.4% level at 1338.72. Alternatively, a reversal below the 50% Fib at 1308.12 exposes the 38.2% expansion at 1294.44.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –
Crude oil prices put in the largest daily decline in four months. From here, a break below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 45.60 targets the 38.2% level at 41.86. Alternatively, a move above resistance in the 48.73-50.18 area exposes the 23.6% Fib expansion at 51.86.
— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com