EURUSD Possible Reverse Point
EURUSD is trading within the confines of a median-line formation extending off the June / July lows with today’s rally now testing a key Fibonacci confluence at 1.1228/31. The immediate topside bias is vulnerable here but the trade remains constructive while above a pair of parallels which converge on the weekly opening-range low at 1.1155 (EURUSD Technical Analysis Today).
EURUSD Careful On An Hidden Pot
Currently, EURUSD trades -0.12% lower at fresh session lows of 1.1209, having faced rejection just below 100-DMA hurdle. The main currency pair is seen consolidating the recent upsurge, barring Monday’s retreat, as the bulls take a breather amid a broad based US dollar recovery as we head towards the crucial US private sector monthly jobs report published by the ADP.
EURUSD Short After Bounce
Backed off the 1.1234 high though upside stays in focus and see scope to target the 1.1300 level to extend the strong up-leg from 1.0952 low. However, intraday tools still stretched and caution pullback to the 1.1180/55 area. Would take break here to trigger deeper pullback to 1.1119/00 area (EURUSD Technical Analysis Today).
EURUSD Wave Count + Fib
The EURUSD broke the resistance (red dotted) of the small consolidation zone and moved up towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which has served as a resistance point till now. A push above this Fib could see price challenge the 78.6% Fib level of wave 2 vs 1, but a break above 100% invalidates the wave count.
EURUSD Technical Analysis Today
The EURUSD pair rallied during the course of the day on Tuesday, as we broke above the 1.12 level. However, there is an uptrend line that had defined the uptrend recently, and therefore it should now offer quite a bit of resistance. It’s not until we break above that line that I would consider buying. In fact, on the 4-hour chart we formed a bit of a shooting star so it’s very likely that we could pull back. If we can drop below the 1.1150 level, I feel that the market will then drop all the way to the 1.10 level below there.
There is little doubt that driving the benchmark currency through the floor of this large H&S pattern (also referred to as the ‘neckline’) would be a significant market event. A break with the intention of follow through would require a serious escalation in bearish conviction that will necessitate strong fundamental backing via a conduit like fully collapsed Fed rate speculation or a spillover risk aversion drive. In contrast, however, it would seem the extension of the move to this point should be relatively low boundary – at least down to the neckline. That said, where the Index shows open air or at most overridden pivot levels from the past few years; its individual components show weighty Dollar-based support that is almost uniformly immediately-at-hand.