The significance of this week is difficult to assess, as although there is much less crucial data due, a British referendum on E.U. membership is being held on Thursday, and it is likely to have a strong effect on markets everywhere, especially in the event that Britain votes to leave.
There will also be some crucial events concerning the U.S. Dollar on Tuesday and Wednesday when the Chair of the Federal Reserve will be testifying to the U.S. Congress.
Also of high significance will be Tuesday’s input from the Reserve Bank of Australia with its Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.
It looks as if the major activity and volatility is going to be centered on Friday’s Asian session as the British referendum results are released over something like an 8 to 10 hour period.
It will be a crucial week for the Pound, with Thursday’s referendum on whether to leave or remain within the European Union. A vote to Leave can be expected to produce a sharp decrease in the value of the British Pound by something like 10% to 15%. It would also trigger a lot of turbulence in other markets and create some big movements in Forex rates. As the results come in, expectations of the final result will probably vary hour by hour, so it could be a wild ride.
It will be a moderately busy week for the Greenback. Tuesday and Wednesday will see testimony from Janet Yellen to Congress, where she may make remarks that affect market sentiment. Wednesday will also see the release of Crude Oil Inventories data. On Thursday we will get Unemployment Claims numbers, followed by Core Durable Goods Orders on Friday.
It will be a light but important week for the Aussie, with nothing due except Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from the RBA on Tuesday.
It will be a fairly light week for the Euro, with Tuesday bringing a German Constitutional Court Ruling on the ECB’s OMT, as well as German ZEW Economic Sentiment numbers. On Friday we will get German IFO Business Climate data.
It will be a very light week for the Loonie, with nothing due except Core Retail Sales data on Wednesday.